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Can I get a bigger tax refund in 2026?

By finance
05/24/2026 3 Min Read

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Can I Get a Bigger Tax Refund in 2026? | Practical Q&A


Can I Get a Bigger Tax Refund in 2026? A Practical Q&A Guide

Short answer: For most middle-income families and individuals, tax refunds in 2026 are likely to be smaller — not bigger — unless Congress extends the expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions. If the law sunsets as scheduled, tax rates will rise, the standard deduction will shrink (even with returning personal exemptions), and the Child Tax Credit will be cut in half. However, higher-income taxpayers in certain brackets and those who itemize heavily could see a modest improvement in their tax position.

Understanding What Actually Determines Your Refund

A tax refund isn’t free money from the government — it’s simply the difference between what you withheld or paid in estimated taxes during the year and your actual tax liability. If your liability goes up and your withholding stays the same, your refund shrinks (or you owe). If your liability drops, you get more back. So the real question is: will your tax liability be higher or lower in 2026?

The massive variable here is the scheduled expiration of the TCJA at the end of 2025. Without Congressional action, the tax code will largely revert to pre-2018 rules — meaning higher rates, a dramatically lower standard deduction, the return of personal exemptions, and reduced credits for families.

The TCJA Sunset: What Changes on January 1, 2026

Here are the major shifts that will affect your bottom line if the TCJA provisions expire as planned:

  • Tax rates rise: The current seven brackets (10%–37%) revert to pre-TCJA rates of 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35%, and 39.6%. The 12% bracket becomes 15%, the 22% becomes 25%, and the 24% becomes 28%.
  • Standard deduction roughly halves: The near-doubled standard deduction under TCJA goes away. For 2025, the standard deduction is projected at $15,000 (single) and $30,000 (married filing jointly). In 2026, it could drop to approximately $8,350 (single) and $16,700 (MFJ), adjusted for inflation.
  • Personal exemptions return: Pre-TCJA, taxpayers claimed a personal exemption (about $4,050 in 2017, likely around $5,200+ per person by 2026 after inflation adjustments). This partially offsets the standard deduction loss, but not fully for many households.
  • Child Tax Credit cut in half: The $2,000-per-child credit drops back to $1,000 per qualifying child, and the refundable portion becomes more restrictive.
  • SALT deduction cap removed: The $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions disappears, which benefits high-tax-state residents who itemize.

2024–2026 Tax Brackets Side by Side

Below are the marginal tax brackets for a single filer across three years — 2024 (current), 2025 (inflation-adjusted TCJA), and 2026 (projected post-TCJA reversion). All figures are estimates; 2026 numbers assume inflation adjustments on pre-TCJA bracket thresholds.

Rate (2024) 2024 Income Range Rate (2025) 2025 Income Range Rate (2026 est.) 2026 Income Range (est.)
10% $0 – $11,600 10% $0 – $11,925 10% $0 – $11,000
12% $11,601 – $47,150 12% $11,926 – $48,475 15% $11,001 – $46,200
22% $47,151 – $100,525 22% $48,476 – $103,350 25% $46,201 – $100,000
24% $100,526 – $191,950 24% $103,351 – $197,300 28% $100,001 – $190,000
32% $191,951 – $243,725 32% $197,301 – $250,525 33% $190,001 – $240,000
35% $243,726 – $609,350 35% $250,526 – $626,350 35% $240,001 – $600,000
37% $609,351+
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